How to Prevent a War without Starting One: Strategies to Counter Chinese Naval Expansion in the Age of Anti-Access & Area Denial

By Annie Rubinson

As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to expand its anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, the U.S.’ offense-oriented naval posture will struggle to secure American interests in the Western Pacific. In order to avoid losing access to this critical region, as well as correct misperceptions of the offense-defense balance that exists within it, the United States government must abandon conventional military wisdom and consider a “denialist” approach instead. This paper explores two proposed policies that fall into this school of thought, evaluates the likelihood that they would bring about their desired outcomes when applied toward the U.S.-China maritime competition, and ultimately explains how combining their strongest components would create a powerful deterrent against PLA adventurism.